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1 The Causes of War
A Introduction `The most important thing about the First World War is that it was the unsought, unintended product of a long sequence of events which began in 1871' (Thomson). Looking back on events there is a tendency to feel that all was lost once Europe was divided into the two basic alliance blocks, but as A.J.P. Taylor points out there was considerable diplomatic manoeuvre both in and between the blocks. B For some years, even after 1907, Britain was as worried about Russian activity in Persia as she was about German naval expansion, and approaches continued between England and Germany for some kind of agreement up to 1912. Even France made approaches to Germany until French feeling and policy hardened under Poincare and the second Moroccan Crisis (1911) strengthened French opposition to Germany. Russia, although she clashed with Austria, had no direct quarrel with Germany until the Kaiser became involved in German expansion in the Turkish Empire and the Middle East. C Three major problems tended to harden the relations between the rival blocks and at the same time to tie the allied nations closer together. Events in the Balkans and in the Turkish Empire drove Russia and Germany farther apart and tied Austria and Germany more tightly together. The Moroccan crises hardened anti-German feeling in France and brought England and France closer together. The naval rivalry between England and Germany broke down repeated attempts to secure an Anglo-German agreement to limit armaments and bound England more closely to the Triple Entente.
2 Events Leading to War
A The Balkan Crisis of 1908 i A revolt in Serbia, in 1903, replaced the pro-Austrian King Alexander by a pro-Russian ruler, King Peter Karageorgovic. Austria took no immediate action but, always worried by the `threat' from Serbia, she planned in 1906 to counter the Serbs by taking over complete control of Bosnia and Herzegovina which had been under Austria's care since 1878. Her opportunity came in 1908 when the revolt of the Young Turks disrupted the government of the Turkish Empire. ii Austria therefore annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1908. Serbia protested and Russia supported Serbia. Germany gave Austria complete backing. Moltke, Chief of the German General Staff, wrote to Conrad, the Chief of the Austrian military staff, 'The moment Russia mobilizes, Germany will also mobilize, and will unquestionably mobilize her whole army.' Since neither France nor England were willing to give active support, Russia had to climb down. iii The Austro-German alliance had scored a great diplomatic success, but as with other German diplomatic adventures the results took a surprising turn. Austria had weakened her position by intensifying German-Slav rivalry and by increasing the hostility of Serbia on her southern frontier. Germany had failed to weaken the Triple Entente and found herself committed to unconditional support for Austria in the Balkans. Russia learnt a double lesson. She moved closer to France and set about strengthening her armed forces. No wonder Bulow when he retired as German Foreign Minister is alleged to have said to Kaiser William II in 1909, 'Do not repeat the Bosnian affair' (Taylor).
B The Moroccan Crisis - The Panther at Agadir, 1911 i In May 1911, the French occupied Fez, the capital of Morocco, following disorder in the country. Though supported by the Sultan of Morocco France had gone beyond the terms agreed at Algeciras and it looked as if the French would take full control of Morocco. ii Kiderlen, the German foreign minister, felt that Germany should get some compensation if France took Morocco, and thinking that France was temporarily isolated since both her partners had recently been negotiating with Germany about affairs in Persia, he decided to wield 'the big stick' to back up his bargaining. The German gunboat, the Panther, was therefore sent to Agadir and anchored there on July 1, 1911. iii The whole situation now changed. Whichever French politicians had been prepared to bargain they could not take the Panther episode lying down. Lloyd George's speech at the Mansion House, declaring that Britain would not accept a peace which meant sacrificing her national interests, was read by the French and German public as full backing for France. The British fleet prepared for action. By the autumn of 1911, the Germans had to accept a face-saving compromise: territory in the Congo as compensation. iv The second Moroccan crisis which had started as an effort to negotiate a bargain and effect some reconciliation with France, ended by hardening Franco-German hostility and by strengthening the Triple Entente instead of weakening it. Caillaux, the French minister with pro-German inclinations, was driven from power and replaced by Poincare (1912) who was from Lorraine and had never forgotten the defeat of 1871. v Germany was humiliated. Prince von Bulow summed up the German viewpoint of Agadir, 'It started like a damp squib, it startled, then amused the world and ended by making us look ridiculous.' Kiderlen was denounced in the Reichstag for his weakness. A new Navy Law authorised in October 1912 put Germany on a programme of three dreadnoughts per year instead of two, and the expansion of her already powerful army was discussed. 'The conflicts of 1905 and 1909 had been crises of diplomacy; in 1911 nations faced each other in a pre-war spirit' (Taylor).
C Anglo-German Naval Rivalry i Germany as a great land power stood behind her army. Britain as a world sea power stood behind her navy. Once Germany seriously challenged Britain's naval power, there was always the fear, not only in British minds, that Germany was seeking world domination. 'It was of decisive importance that Britain and Germany — the greatest world power and the greatest European power — were now competing for supremacy at sea' (Thomson). ii Germany began with the Navy Laws of 1897 and 1898, which added twelve battleships to the existing seven, together with major increases in the number of large and small cruisers. In 1900, her naval programme planned to double her existing battleships and clearly pointed German ambitions towards world sea-power. In 1903, Britain took up the challenge with the new naval base at Rosyth and approval was given by Parliament for the formation of a North Sea fleet. In 1905, Britain started to build dreadnoughts and Germany quickly followed her example. English proposals to cut down the naval race were repeatedly brushed aside by the Kaiser and, after 1907, such requests became doubly suspect. iii Agadir raised the naval problem again in acute form, and when Lord Haldane's mission of friendship to Berlin in February 1912 foundered on the German Navy Law of that year, Britain introduced a new and greater naval programme and made arrangements with the French by which French naval forces were concentrated in the Mediterranean and British naval forces in the North Sea. The naval race upset repeated attempts by Britain to come to some general agreement with Germany. It was significant that Lord Haldane's attempt was the last. It had, however, the opposite effect on Anglo-French relations by binding the two countries more closely together. iv The naval race was only one aspect of the general build-up of armaments. In 1913, France raised her period of compulsory military service from two years to three, and the Russians extended their military service from three to three and a half years. The German army, also enlarged, was building up to a force of five million men. v Between 1912 and 1914 the two rival alliances were feverishly building up all the arms for war. The nations of Europe were organized into two tight groups with no bridge between them. `There could scarcely have been worse conditions for either peace or war. The equilibrium was so delicate that a puff of wind might destroy it' (J.A. Spender, quoted by Thomson).
D The Balkan Wars, 1912-13 i The Balkan Wars finished in August 1913 just twelve months before the outbreak of the First World War and their influence on the overall European situation was very important. The emergence of a much larger Serbia frightened Austria and a quick war seemed to the Austrian government the only way to ward off the Serbian threat. In October 1913, when the Serbs moved into Albania to restore order on the frontier, Austria demanded their withdrawal within a week and Kaiser William II told the Austrian Minister, Berchtold, 'You can be certain I stand behind you and am ready to draw the sword whenever your action makes it necessary' (Taylor). This was the green light for Austria. ii The Balkan Wars weakened the Turkish Empire and gave Germany an opening to become dominant at the Straits. Constantinople could be the spearhead of German economic expansion and railway penetration into the Middle East. 'The temptation was irresistible and indeed if Germany were to continue on her course as a Great Power, unavoidable' (Taylor). iii Russia had also a vital interest in the Straits. Southern Russia depended on a free passage through the Straits for her export trade in general and for her corn trade in particular. The last thing that Russia wanted to see was a foreign power such as Germany established in Constantinople. This explains her vigorous protest in November 1913, when a German General, Liman von Sanders, was put in charge of the Turkish army and given command of Constantinople. The Russians backed by France and Britain persuaded the Germans to remove him. iv The net result of the Balkan wars was to underline harshly in the area of the Balkans and the Turkish Empire, the basic conflict between Pan-German aims as represented by Austria and Germany, and Pan-Slav aims as represented by Russia and Serbia. This was the more dangerous at a time when Germany had promised unconditional support for Austria, while France, more confident than at any time since 1871, was more ready to back Russia, even in the Balkans where she had no direct interest. v As a final ironic touch the speed with which the Balkan states had won their war against Turkey was noted. The major powers on the continent thought in terms of a similar lightning war, and made preparations for it.
E The Assassination of Archduke Ferdinand at Sarajevo, June 28,1914 i The powder-keg was already full. The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, heir to the Austrian throne, put the match to it by giving Austria the opportunity she was determined to take, of crushing Serbia in war. The Austrian ultimatum sent to Serbia (July 23) was followed within five days by a declaration of war against Serbia in spite of the conciliatory answer given by the Serbs. The Russians had advised the Serbs not to resist but to depend on action by the Great Powers. Grey for the British government tried to mediate. ii The Austrians were determined on war and the Germans made no effort to stop them. Russian general mobilization (July 30) was followed by German mobilization. Germany declared war on Russia (August 1) and on France (August 3). The German ultimatum to Belgium, demanding free passage for German troops through Belgium, brought in Britain on August 4, 1914. Only a week was needed to declare a war which lasted four years.
Questions 1. Outline the chief events leading to the First World War from 1907 to 1914. 2. How far would you consider Austria and Germany to be responsible for the War of 1914-18 ? 3. Show how events in (a) Morocco, and (b) the Balkans, contributed to the outbreak of war in 1914. 4. What importance would you give to (a) naval rivalry, and (b) general rearmament, as factors leading to war in 1914? 5. Show the importance of each of the following: The German Navy Laws - Bosnia and Herzegovina - The Panther - The Balkan Wars - Sarajevo. |
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